Why I don’t worry about the Dow

The Dow went up 936 points today, the biggest one day jump in Wall Street history. Last week, it went down by a record 800+ points. This has been quite a roller coaster ride, and with any luck, it will catapult Barack Obama into the White House, which is where he belongs. Have I had any fear? No. Not a bit. Here’s why, and why you shouldn’t either. First, Wall Street is all about confidence (or a lack thereof) and the last two weeks have been no exception. With governments around the world cooperating and throwing billions to banks around the world, there is NO WAY the credit crisis or liquidity problems will continue to exist for long, and thus, sentiment will improve and thus, Wall Street will begin to prosper again (not by their own doing). Wall Street’ers will become "bailout welfare recipients" unabashed to accept Uncle Sam’s cash. It’s incredible to believe bailout legislation, as currently written, will reward those most guilty of harming the global economy during the housing run-up. Second, the old rule "what goes up must go down" is still in effect, but in reverse. No matter how bad Wall Street has performed, historically the Dow returns to a relative level of "normal" trading after huge losses. Bush and Team announcing they will inject billions into struggling banks (who, as many of you know, are the ones I place PRINCIPAL BLAME on for this crisis) will inject the markets will confidence, leading to more multiple triple-digit gain days. Third, the global connectivity and speed with which the markets move is much faster than in the 80’s, or even the 90’s. Computerization, the speed of international communications and information flow, and twenty-four-seven coverage of the "overnight" markets in Asia means we all know what each other are trading, almost instantly. No market can hide the ebb and flow of confidence anymore, and as we’ve seen, the human act of watching others do poorly or well in real time has an immediate effect on emotions. As the markets rise here, confidence will immediately impact other world markets, just as surely as the sun rises and sets. So don’t worry. For what it’s worth, this is still a big paper game, with only SOME of the paper actually being real, and the rest of it being forged and printed only in the minds of its pursuers. Your government pension fund or Social Security check will be safe. Most of us with market retirement instruments like 401k’s will see a drop, but most probably a return to profitability within a month or two. No one can afford to let the free world economy shrivel up and die - even if debt has to be written off. So whatever happens, keep your spirits up - as Wall Street proved again today, that’s really the only thing that matters.

The Coming Global Debt Write-Off

You heard it here first:  there isn’t any other way out. 

You probably think the financial mess can’t get worse. But if the world economy is Thelma and Louise, none of us have even seen the chasm yet, but we still know it’s there (and how the story ends).

Let me propose the following:  THERE IS NO WAY TO ‘GROW’ OURSELVES OUT OF THIS CRISIS.  The same applies to the rest of the global economy.  The numbers are too big – frankly, insurmountable.  Sooner or later, Obama, the G20 nations, and everybody else is going to have to face the fact that DEBT WILL HAVE TO BE WRITTEN OFF in order for any of us to survive this mess.  Unless we want soup lines and “brother can you spare a dime?” signs littering CNN, there isn’t any other choice.  Here’s why.

In order to avoid a total, all-out ‘Grand Depression’ the Treasury and Congress have created a bail out package which, so far, hasn’t bailed out anybody of any importance (namely, you and me, the real ‘engines’ behind the U.S. economy).  My guess is, nobody wants to trump Obama before he takes the oath in January, despite his protestations that something should be done now, not later.  The current thinking is, if action is taken that doesn’t square with Obama & Team don’t approve of, the blame will fall squarely on the outgoing team.  However, if no additional action is taken, the blame will still fall on the current administration, and you can bet Paulson will take the brunt of it.  Regardless, let me outline the reasons that NO PLAN is going to ever reduce the debt load currently faced – and I mean not just the U.S. debt, but the total debt of all industrialized nations (and some not so industrialized).  The facts as they stand now:

• American consumer debt, largely un-payable at the current earnings levels, is $2.5 trillion and climbing
• Emerging and developing nations nearly doubled their outstanding debt between 2000 and 2008, to nearly 5 trillion projected for 2009 (Source:  IMF.org)
• Central and Eastern Europe quadrupled their debt load during this same period, from roughly $300 billion to $1.1 trillion – an enormous figure for traditionally weak economies (Source:  IMF.org)
• Even in the U.K., the debt load increased $60 billion pounds in just the last 6 months, upping the total debt load to more than half a trillion pounds this year alone.

Just a couple weeks ago, in case you missed it, Federal bank regulators in the U.S. recently rejected a request, brought mostly by consumer advocates, to let lenders forgive huge portions of credit card debt. This would have been a huge first step to avoiding the “Grand Recession,” but let’s face it – sooner or later, it’s going to be done.  It HAS to be done. 

The staggering amount of world debt is insurmountable.  Emerging countries are powerless to control their economic fate when lending is severely curtailed (as it is now).  The approximate household debt level for each American has risen to roughly $535,000 (that’s the total American debt figure divided by all of us who can, ostensibly, pay).

So what to do?  Here’s what I think:

• Reference the post World War I (and II) debt write-off’s.  After Hitler’s defeat, Germany was destitute, as was much of Europe.  Instead of forcing war reparations on Germany (the notorious prime cause of Hitler’s rise), this time debt was forgiven so Germany could rebuild.
• Think globally.  Every nation is going to have to write down debt AND trade in a more balanced manner, similar to what Lord Keynes proposed before Bretton Woods.  More importantly, if Keynes had his way, we would have a global currency and a more or less “equivalent” balance of trade with other nations, instead of see-sawing trade deficits and surpluses.
• Write off at least 10 percent of consumer credit card debt.  You’re never going to get it back anyway (not to mention it was feloniously acquired by predatory lenders … who ever heard of a 29.99 percent loan for a TV at Best Buy?  Or worse yet, a loan that KEEPS INCREASING THE PRICE OF THE ASSET PURCHASED BECAUSE LENDERS KEEP INCREASING, POST PURCHASE, THE RATE ON YOUR TOTAL CREDIT CARD DEBT, REGARDLESS OF THE RATE YOU HAD WHEN THE ORIGINAL ITEM WAS PURCHASED?
• Move toward a global currency.  This, too, is inevitable.  Keynes had it right, but we botched it in favor of OUR OWN SELF INTEREST … again.  This time, let’s get it right.
• Devalue the U.S. dollar, just as FDR did.  Short term hurt, long term gain.  It helped end the first Great Depression, and if we use it wisely, we can avoid the Grand Depression.

Mark my words.  Debt reduction via massive global write-off’s is coming.  There isn’t any other way out.